With just a few weeks left in Nevada’s 2025 legislative session, lawmakers have a massive hurdle to contend with: a $191 million budget shortfall.

This is the number Nevada’s Economic Forum landed on for its May projections. The Economic Forum is a group of five private-sector economists tasked with meeting a few times each year to make forecasts of the state’s General Fund revenues. Those May numbers are then used by the Legislature to determine the state budget and how much money is available to fund proposed legislation. This is the first time the projected revenue has decreased mid-session since 2009. 

“It’s definitely a big deal. We need to remember 2008 was the Great Recession, right? So that’s the context we’re coming into this from,” The Nevada Independent’s Capital Bureau Chief Tabitha Mueller said.

“I think lawmakers and economists have both pointed to the changes we’ve seen recently, where we’re talking about the tariffs the Trump administration has implemented, economic changes. As well as shifts in tourism, that’s kind of driving this." Mueller told Nevada Week. 

"I think a lot of folks are saying, ‘We need to batten down the hatches, we need to make sure our spending is going to meet the budget revenue, right?’ We cannot go over budget by law."

And this isn’t the only budget shortfall lawmakers need to consider. The State Education Fund shows it has a nearly $160 million decrease as well. This fund supports operational costs of Nevada’s education system and is funded by various taxes, including mining, room, and cannabis taxes.

"We cannot go over budget by law." 

- Tabitha Mueller, Capital Bureau Chief, The Nevada Independent

Many of the bills before the Legislature are currently in finance committees because they have a fiscal note attached. Mueller says with these budget announcements, lawmakers are re-examining budget proposals and making sure they match the fiscal needs of the state. And lawmakers are starting to tamp down their expectations.

“We’ve seen some trimming down of things, we’ve seen ‘Do we really need to spend this money on new offices?’ those types of deals,” Mueller said.

The 83rd Session of the Nevada Legislature is scheduled to adjourn on June 2. But a special session may be in the works. Mueller says Nevada Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager has indicated the special session might happen because of developments at the federal level.

“Our state budget relies on about a third of federal funding. When we talk about that third of federal funding, if there are cuts at the federal level, that means we will have to make cuts at the state level. Especially if it’s to programs like Medicaid, which make up the majority of that spending,” she said.

If that special session were to happen, it would likely be in the fall after the federal budget is released.

As far as the most talked-about bills this session, negotiations continue on competing film and education bills, with the possibility of merging elements of the bills to create combined legislation. Governor Lombardo is set to formally introduce his health bill. According to Mueller, a bill that would make the lottery legal in Nevada is dead. A bill that would bring red light cameras to Nevada is also not moving forward. 

But as Mueller reminds us,  there can be surprises during the Legislature.

“In the Legislature, even if a bill dies, it can still be resurrected in a number of ways,” she said. “It can be amended into another bill, they can have a waiver attached to it. So the only thing you know is truly dead is at the end of the Legislative Session, June 2, the last day.”